This is Stubborn Week in Big Ten football.
Michigan State has done nothing to warrant being favored on the road against an undefeated team, barely beating Utah State and folding late at Arizona State.
Same for Wisconsin, which is favored at 3-0 Iowa. Last we saw the Badgers, they couldn’t keep up with Team Vowel (aka BYU) and its touchdown-catching Moroni Laulu-Pututau.
So what’s next for Michigan State and Wisconsin? Do we support them (financially) based on our preseason evaluation?
Picks are against the spread (from VegasInsider.com consensus at 9 a.m. Thursday), and selections are in bold:
Friday
Penn State (minus 28) at Illinois: The Illini showed us something before the Fold-ier at Soldier. They’re also adding healthy bodies. And with the Nittany Lions possibly looking ahead to next Saturday’s tussle with Ohio State, I’ll take the points.
Saturday
Nebraska (plus 17½) at Michigan: It was an emotional week in Lincoln after Scott Frost suggested players not fully invested should hit the road. Offensive lineman Tanner Farmer backed him up: “You’ll always have some guys on a team who resist buying in. That can be the difference between winning and losing games.” Banged-up Michigan backs Karan Higdon and Chris Evans are expected to play, but I’ll take the Huskers to back up their coach and cover the big number.
Boston College (minus 6½) at Purdue: The spread has dropped just a half-point even though everyone seems to be picking the overdue Boilermakers to win or at least cover. This is not the slow and steady BC you thought you knew. The Eagles are averaging 52.7 points and probably won’t face much resistance in West Lafayette.
Buffalo (minus 5) at Rutgers: Jim Delany should look at this line and think: What have I done? A Big Ten team is nearly a touchdown underdog to Buffalo at home?! And, yes, I’ll take the Bulls.
Minnesota (plus 1½) at Maryland: Is this another year in which Maryland pretty much looks good only against Texas? I’ll go with that theory and take the Gophers.
Tulane (plus 37) at Ohio State: Tulane is guaranteed $1.5 million and a beating. With the Penn State game looming, will Urban Meyer rest his starters earlier than usual, keeping the final tally down? Maybe, but I’m still envisioning 49-10. So bet the Bucks.
Michigan State (minus 5) at Indiana: Call me stubborn. The Spartans have done nothing to warrant our faith and the Hoosiers played them down to the wire in 2016 and 2017. But given an extra week to refocus and prepare, the Spartans, to me, are irresistible.
Wisconsin (minus 3) at Iowa: When the line opened at 3½, I would have grabbed the Hawkeyes. Ohio State will tell you just how lethal they are at Kinnick Stadium under the lights. At 3, I will slide the other way, favoring the matchup of the Badgers’ NFL-caliber offensive line against Iowa’s young linebackers.
Last week: 5-7.
Season: 16-20.
tgreenstein@chicagotribune.com
Twitter @TeddyGreenstein
